Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
